PC MLA Natalie Jameson secured a federal Conservative nomination, which will soon trigger a byelection in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park that could have major political implications for P.E.I., says UPEI political science professor Don Desserud.
Jameson won the party’s nomination for the Charlottetown riding after stepping down from her cabinet position last fall.
She was first elected as MLA for Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park in a deferred election in 2019 and served in Premier Dennis King’s cabinet for most of her tenure.
Jameson held multiple portfolios, including minister responsible for the status of women, minister of environment and climate change, and was most recently minister of education.
At winning the Conservative nomination at a convention Thursday evening, Jameson told CBC that she plans to resign her provincial seat “relatively soon.”
Desserud said the upcoming byelection will be a closely watched contest.
“That’s maybe the most interesting byelection we’ve had here in Prince Edward Island in some time. Each party has a huge stake in it,” he told CBC’s Island Morning.
“If the Green Party wins, they now have four seats [and] that makes them the Official Opposition — huge, huge stake for them. Liberals, of course, don’t want to be reduced down to the third party.”
Meanwhile, for the governing Progressive Conservatives, Desserud said the upcoming race brings back memories of last year’s Borden-Kinkora byelection, where PC candidate Carmen Reeves was defeated by the Greens’ Matt MacFarlane. That loss was a setback for the PCs, as District 19 was previously held by the governing PCs.
That byelection was triggered by the resignation of former PC MLA Jamie Fox, who stepped down to run in the federal election. Fox is now the Conservative candidate in Malpeque.
“The PC government, do they want to see two byelections in a row go against them? That’s a sign of a problem,” Desserud said. “So they’re going to be looking at that one really carefully as well.”
The outcome of Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park byelection could also influence the leadership decisions of both the Liberal and Green parties, while the PCs are likely already searching for or have already found a candidate to contest the seat, Desserud said.
Byelection timing
P.E.I.’s Election Act requires an election to be called within six months of the seat being vacated. Desserud expects that to happen within three months in Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park.
He said King will need to carefully navigate the timing because the byelection could be influenced by broader federal political dynamics.
On Jan. 6, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be stepping down as Liberal leader, triggering a race to succeed him. The party is set to choose its next leader — and Canada’s next prime minister — on March 9.
“Depending on who the leader of the Liberal Party is, depending on what the issues are, that’s going to affect what happens in the byelection,” Desserud said.
He said King will also need to avoid overlapping with the next federal election, whenever that may be.
“To position that byelection strategically, it might just turn out to be something [like], ‘Well, what the heck? Let’s just look at when the weather is going to be the nicest and go with that,'” Desserud said.
“Because that’s actually an important factor in election turnout.”
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