2025 NCAA Tournament National Title Tiers: No-brainers, Teams On The Rise, Wild Cards

John Fanta

College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter

With the Ohio State Buckeyes hoisting the College Football Playoff national championship trophy on Monday night in Atlanta, all eyes now turn to the hardwood where a men’s basketball national champion will be crowned this April in San Antonio.

It’s been a fascinating start to the college hoops season, with Auburn emerging as the nation’s top-ranked team, yet the intrigue for the No. 1 spot lies in the fact that the Tigers’ lone loss came to the second-ranked Duke Blue Devils back on Dec. 4. Duke is led by the best freshman – and maybe player – in America in Cooper Flagg, who delivered 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals and two blocks in that win over Bruce Pearl’s team.

Auburn has star power of its own with national player of the year front-runner Johni Broome, who is averaging 17.9 points, 10.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game while shooting 55% from the floor for the 17–1 Tigers. Broome has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle and his timetable to return remains up in the air.

While those two teams are at the top of the ladder, there are several other national championship contenders in the Southeastern Conference, which is having a historic season and could send 13 teams to the NCAA Tournament.

Last year, UConn went 37-3 and won six games in the NCAA Tournament by a combined 160 points on its way to a national championship. It feels like we’re in for a much more dramatic road to crowning a 2025 champion in this sport. And as the year goes on, we’ve seen the emergence of teams like red-hot Michigan State, which has won 11 consecutive games in Tom Izzo’s 30th season and is ranked in the top 10 this week, or a new-look Kentucky team under Mark Pope, and even Penny Hardaway and Memphis. Am I saying that any of those three will win the national championship? No, but it’s called madness for a reason, and I do believe we will see a team in the Final Four that doesn’t rank in the top 15 of the Associated Press rankings right now.

So with that, I took 16 college basketball teams and broke them up into four national title tiers, while also adding some wild cards. Here we go:

TIER 1: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Iowa State

The Tigers’ success goes beyond just Broome, as they have one of the nation’s most dynamic backcourts and one of the best freshman guards in the game with Tahaad Pettiford, who posted 24 points in a 70-68 win at Georgia this past Saturday. Combine his explosive plays with the senior leadership and shooting of Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly and Denver Jones, and you’ve got a team that has an answer to every question when Broome is fully healthy. Pearl’s teams always guard, and this one is no different, but the fact that they’re No. 1 in KenPom offensive efficiency is wild.

Speaking of analytics, the Blue Devils are the only team in the country that ranks in the top-three of KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency. Duke boasts the longest winning streak in college basketball at 12 straight and is 8-0 in the ACC with an average margin of victory in league play that sits at 23 points. Flagg is not the only stud freshman on this team, with sharpshooter Kon Knueppel and 7-foot-2 tower Khaman Maluach also starring and increasing their NBA Draft stock. The key for this team is continuing to get quality point guard play from junior Tyrese Proctor and 3-point shooting.

As for Alabama, I have a lot of trust in Nate Oats’ team with Mark Sears and Grant Nelson back and the depth that they possess. Why could the Crimson Tide win it all? They have the nation’s fourth-best offense and have made a leap defensively, with Rutgers transfer Cliff Omoruyi in the middle. As freshman Labaron Philon, a potential lottery prospect, and fifth-year senior Chris Youngblood continue to pick up steam, the perimeter depth of this team is outstanding.

I round things out with the Cyclones, even after a loss at West Virginia this past weekend. Before that defeat to a Mountaineers team that now owns three wins over previously ranked top-10 teams, Iowa State had lost just once the entire season – by two against Auburn at the Maui Invitational. The growth of Keshon Gilbert and Curtis Jones coupled with the addition of Joshua Jefferson from Saint Mary’s gives Iowa State a better offense to go deeper than last year’s Sweet 16 appearance.

TIER 2: Illinois, Houston, Florida, Tennessee

Let’s start with what some might think is a surprise in this group: Illinois. Sure, the Big Ten has not won a national championship in 25 years, and yes, I realize Illinois lost this past weekend to Michigan State. But part of putting together national title tiers is projecting things out and Brad Underwood’s team has the best upside in the league. The fact that Underwood returned less than 10% of his scoring from last year and is in this position with a top-20 team is a testament to the fantastic job that he’s done in Champaign. Kasparas Jakucionis is a top-five NBA Draft pick, Tomislav Ivisic is a problem in the post, and Will Riley is a real X-factor.

As for Houston, the Cougars are the best defensive team in America and that’s why they are in Tier 2. L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp are steady in the backcourt, and keep an eye on J’Wan Roberts, who has combined for 43 points over the last two games.

Meanwhile, Florida has one of the best duos in America with Walter Clayton and Alijah Martin combining to average over 34 points per game. But what makes the Gators scary good is their +11.8 rebounding margin, which leads the country. They get on the glass aggressively, with Alex Condon being a near double-double guy.

Tennessee is 2-2 in its last four games after starting the season 14-0 and running through non-conference play undefeated. I still believe in the Volunteers and think this is life in the SEC this year. But they need to get All-American candidate and North Florida transfer Chaz Lanier back on track. He shot 2-for-16 against Georgia last week and committed five turnovers in the loss at Vanderbilt on Saturday. Still, with Zakai Zeigler as a lead guard and a top-three defense in America, combined with the undefeated non-conference season, that’s enough for me to have the Vols in the second tier.

TIER 3: Michigan State, Kentucky, Kansas, Memphis

The Spartans are one of the bigger surprises here considering they were picked FIFTH in the conference preseason media poll and, at the moment, they’re the highest-ranked team in the league. But are we ever going to doubt Izzo? Nope, and his team has won 11 consecutive games. How? With the emergence of an alpha in Jaden Akins, an X-factor in freshman Jase Richardson, the continued progression of impact transfer Frankie Fidler, and one of the nation’s best rebounding margins at +9.7. This team plays with the level of physicality that Izzo desires, and when they package stops together, Tre Holloman & Co. can run like the best Michigan State teams have over the last quarter-century. The Spartans keep finding ways to win and Izzo is Mr. March. That’s why they lead the third tier.

Kentucky has one of the nation’s best offenses, ranking second in both KenPom and Torvik in efficiency on that end of the floor, but the reason why the 14-4 Wildcats aren’t in the second tier is their defense lacks consistency. Mark Pope’s team is allowing 88.6 points per game in the SEC. If they can grow on that end of the floor, watch out. This team could be in my top tier by the end of the regular season because they can beat you in so many ways offensively, with Otega Oweh, Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson leading a core of five averaging in double-figures.

As for Kansas, I was pondering whether to put them in the third or fourth tier because the Jayhawks haven’t seen their transfer portal pieces fully click. That said, Hall of Famer Bill Self has still led Kansas past Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina this season and has experience on his side with Hunter Dickinson, Dajuan Harris and KJ Adams. But the fact of the matter is, Wisconsin transfer AJ Storr and Alabama transfer Rylan Griffen have not worked out to the degree one thought they would and that’s why, until we see better signs, I can’t put Kansas any higher than this.

And then there’s my dark horse of this tiers system: Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers. At 14-4 with five Quadrant 1 victories on the season, Memphis made a statement early on when they knocked off UConn and Michigan State to advance to the Maui Invitational championship game. An overtime win against Clemson and a 17-point blowout of Ole Miss continued to show that on this team’s best day, they can compete with and beat anybody in college basketball. Why? Because Hardaway hit a home run in the portal by bringing in Tulsa transfer PJ Haggerty and Texas transfer Tyrese Hunter, who are combining for just under 50 points of production per game when you total points and assists together. Illinois transfer Dain Dainja supplies the interior play for a team that ranks right around the top 40 in defensive efficiency, while Colby Rogers has been a solid supplemental guard. Yes, Memphis can make the Final Four for the first time in 17 years, and at that point, throw the ball in the air and see what happens. They’ve got the talent to be really dangerous.

TIER 4: Purdue, UConn, Marquette, Michigan

The Boilermakers open up our fourth and final tier because they possess the best point guard in the country in Braden Smith (15.1 PPG, 8.9 APG, 4.6 RPG, 44% FG, 40% from 3) and have one of the most improved players in the country with Trey Kaufman-Renn. To win seven straight games the way they have has been really impressive and if Smith and Fletcher Loyer can just get a little bit of help on the perimeter, this Purdue team could end up in San Antonio. Sure, certain matchups might have to go their way because Zach Edey isn’t walking through that door, but I really like their makeup and experience. This tier is all about how much you believe in coaching and star power.

Speaking of coaching and star power, did you think we would get done with these tiers without including the reigning back-to-back national champions? While UConn is not what it was last year – it’s hard to be when you go 37-3 and win your six NCAA Tournament games by a combined 160 points – the Huskies are still dangerous because of their sheer amount of shotmaking with Alex Karaban, Liam McNeeley (when healthy), Solo Ball and more.

As for the Golden Eagles of Marquette, the last time they went to a Final Four was 2003 with some guy named Dwyane Wade who was a consensus first-team All-American. The interesting part is there’s a parallel player with this 2024-25 Marquette team in terms of the level of impact he makes and the extraordinary leader that he is. That’s the role Kam Jones plays every day for the Golden Eagles, averaging 19.1 points and 6.7 assists while shooting 49% from the floor on the year. Stevie Mitchell is one of the best defensive players in America, and senior David Joplin spaces the floor. If Shaka Smart’s team can continue to defend at the level they have (16th in KenPom) and see the supporting cast rise as the year goes on, this team can reach San Antonio.

And finally, we will go with Dusty May and the Michigan Wolverines. Two years after authoring an all-time Final Four run while at Florida Atlantic, May has a team in Ann Arbor that can win by playing two 7-footers in Yale transfer Danny Wolf and FAU transfer Vlad Goldin. The biggest thing for Michigan is limiting turnovers and Tre Donaldson getting consistent backcourt help. The Wolverines rank top-three in the Big Ten in points, field goal percentage, 3-point field goal percentage, assists and rebounds. It’s why they’re top-11 in both KenPom and Torvik, and why they could be a real sleeper to get to San Antonio and have a shot to win it all this April.

WILD CARDS:

Mississippi State

Texas A&M

St. John’s

Missouri

John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.

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