Best Super Bowl 2025 Prop Bets, Predictions By Chris "The Bear" Fallica

Chris Fallica

FOX Sports Wagering Expert

Here is my second group of props and bets for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIX on FOX, and I figured I would keep the theme.

No, I’m not doing this to be cute. I actually do like these plays.

And who doesn’t like instant gratification? Especially on the contrarian side!

Let’s dive in.

PART II

Juju Smith-Schuster anytime TD: +550
Juju Smith-Schuster o16.5 receiving yards

We know in these Super Bowls, there is a nice history of completely random Chiefs finding the end zone — see Mecole Hardman, MVS, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore and Damien Williams. So let’s throw an educated dart on Smith-Schuster, who, in his last full season in K.C., had 101 targets and is someone Patrick Mahomes knows.

My colleague Geoff Schwartz has talked about the loss of Nakobe Dean really mattering here and JuJu could be a beneficiary of some matchup advantages with Oren Burks. We gotta try and be a little different from the group-think out there and this is a spot where I’ll zag when everyone is zigging.

Saquon Barkley longest run u25.5 yards: -130

I already mentioned taking Barkley going under 4.5 yards on his first carry, and I’ll back that up with Barkley’s longest carry at 25.5 yards. DraftKings was the lone spot I saw still with a 25.5 posted, albeit juiced a bit higher.

First holding penalty of game called on Kansas City: -115

While we don’t know which team will get the ball first, I’ll just use a little logic and say the Chiefs will be the team to get called for the first holding penalty. Their offensive line shuffling has created some issues, and we all expect the Chiefs to throw the ball more than Philadelphia. That infers to me that we’re more likely to see a holding penalty called on a K.C. pass play than a Philly running play. And we’ve also seen Mike Caliendo struggle on some run plays as well.

Passing TDs in Super Bowl LIX greater than goals in Saturday’s Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid: -140

Now the fun stuff.

It’s a massive game atop the La Liga standings on Saturday, when Real Madrid hosts Atlético Madrid. Typically, Diego Simeone’s side does not concede many goals in big matches, and I think he’d be quite happy to get out of this one with a point away from Atleti’s home field.

In the last 11 La Liga meetings between the two, nine times we’ve seen two goals or fewer scored, once we’ve seen three goals and once we’ve seen four goals. So, odds are we’re not going to see a ton of goals here.

I think it’s fair to expect a baseline of three TD passes in the Super Bowl, which likely means a push at worst, and potentially a win. And if we get four TD passes, that makes our chances of cashing even that much better.

Super Bowl LIX Super 6: Who is going to win the Super Bowl?

Matt Araiza touchback: +195
Braden Mann touchback: +235

We expect these teams to go for it on fourth down near midfield, but if we’re looking at fourth-and-distance, that certainly will not be the case.

These punters so often try and get cute and land the ball inside the 3- or 5-yard line, and either kick the ball right into the end zone or the ball just rolls into it for a touchback. Maybe this will be the game they learn to just land it at the 10 or just kick it out of bounds, but we’re not counting on it.

Giannis Antetokounmpo P+R+A vs. PHI -1/2 vs. total points in Super Bowl

Antetokounmpo could go off Sunday against the defensively-challenged Sixers. He’s averaging around 50 combined points, rebounds and assists per game on the season, so it is slightly higher than the total in the Super Bowl.

I expect a slightly lower scoring game Sunday in New Orleans and depending on whether Joel Embiid decides to play, we could see Giannis go for something like 40/15/7, and I’d feel really good about my chances.

Longest TD in Super Bowl LIX u39.5 yards

With how these teams defend, I’m not sure we see a big scoring play. Expect both teams to try and keep everything underneath, which means it will take a great individual effort to score from distance.

Maybe my handicap is wrong on Barkley, and he will break a long one, but I’ll trust Spags and the K.C. defense to keep him from ripping off another 60-yarder.

Super Bowl LIX

Super Bowl LIX — coming to you live on Feb. 9, 2025. Stream Live & Free in 4K on Tubi or watch on FOX (Must be signed in to watch).

Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

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