Confidence in the local economy appeared mixed this month, with the index gauging current conditions rising, while another index assessing the economic outlook declined, Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) said on Thursday.
Citing a survey conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 7, Cathay Financial said about 29.3 percent of respondents thought the economy improved this month, while 35.7 percent felt it worsened.
That translated into an economic optimism index of about minus-6.4 this month, an improvement from minus-8.7 last month.
Photo: CNA
However, the economic optimism index for the next six months fell to minus-11.2 this month from minus-5.8 last month, following a decline in December leading indicators, the survey showed.
Amid volatility in global stock markets and US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the index measuring optimism toward the local stock market dropped sharply from 16.5 last month to 9.2 this month, the survey found.
Meanwhile, the index gauging the appetite for risk in the stock market increased slightly from 17.2 last month to 19.3 this month.
Cathay Financial said that 34 percent of respondents believed the tariff war could affect global trade and impact Taiwan’s economic growth, while 43.1 percent said the performance of US stock markets is expected to influence Taiwan’s equity market.
Respondents also projected GDP to grow 2.84 percent this year, with 53 percent expecting annual growth to be below 3 percent, it said, adding that it was more conservative than the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics’ (DGBAS) forecast of 3.29 percent.
Respondents expected growth in the local consumer price index (CPI) to reach 2.28 percent this year, with about 66 percent anticipating the CPI would average more than 2 percent for the year, above the central bank’s forecast, Cathay Financial said.
The DGBAS forecast that inflation would slow from 2.18 percent last year to 1.93 percent this year.
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