Feb, 26 (UPI) — Despite the best of intentions, unless the trajectory of the Department of Government Efficiency is reversed as it descends on the Pentagon, it will not achieve its goals of reforming the system and saving large amounts of money. How do I know? My record of sensing bad outcomes is sadly accurate.
In 1967, with two other junior officers summoned back from Vietnam to brief President Lyndon Johnson on the state of the war, I was asked to speak directly and replied in blunt terms we were losing.
And in 2002, despite my friendship with Secretary of State Colin Powell and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, I failed to convince them Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction.
The prior Central Command commander, Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, had convincing evidence of the absence of WMD that was ignored. And senior foreign intelligence heads warned me that “Curveball,” an Iraqi lieutenant general, could not be trusted as to his assertions.
Three years later, on a trip to Afghanistan as part of NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe Advisory Board, when we visited the opening of a junior officer-senior enlisted training facility, the first training lesson was how to use indoor plumbing. What did we learn about cultural differences?
DOGE might consider this approach. The executive branch has the authority to improve efficiency. But regarding spending, only one branch has that mandate: Congress.
The reality is that this year’s federal budget will be about $7 trillion, with revenues of $5 trillion. If savings are to be made, that must be the target. But the executive has no authority there.
DOGE has embarked on a plan of ready, fire, aim, seeming to cut programs based on a lack of knowledge and understanding of the Pentagon. A proposed 8% annual cut for five years based on no analysis will make the future force a shadow of the post-Vietnam “hollow force.”
The reason is self-evident. Just to sustain the current force requires about 5% to 7% annual real growth. Add the effects of continuing resolutions and no passed budgets will lose another 5% to 10% in purchasing power.
The president has the authority to choose his chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The chairman delegate, retired Lt. Gen. Dan Caine, has an interesting background and is well-regarded. But this is largely in special operations. He has no experience in commanding at the three-star, let alone at the four star level, and will be at a decided disadvantage to his more operationally and politically experienced other chiefs.
And the way the chairman of the Joint Chiefs and Navy head were terminated will not help morale and disrespected their honorable service. To work, DOGE must start with the strategy and correct its flaws.
The secretary of Defense asserted that the strategy is to deter, fight and win. But the strategy has not stopped Russia from twice invading Ukraine or deterred China from its military expansion. Thermonuclear war cannot be fought or won; and only those of us over 80 can recall the last real war we won.
A more appropriate strategy is a porcupine defense, based on so damaging any initial attack to make it unacceptable to the aggressor. In Europe, this is a more muscular version of Ukraine’s valiant stand. In Asia, Taiwan could easily mount such a defense if it wanted to prevent an invasion. But elements of the Kuomintang Party may see a future union with China as possible.
If war were to come in Asia, the porcupine would keep China to the first island chain and roll up its extensive Belt and Road Initiative globally, in essence, strangling China of resources as we did to Japan in World War II.
This active duty force would number between 900,000 and 1 million, down from1.3 million, and be divided in three. One tranche of 300,000 would be deployed or deployable divided between east and west; one tranche would be in training and readily deployable in crisis; and the last would be at rest and in long-term training. The annual cost would be about $700 billion to $750 billion and would need annual increases.
But make no mistake: On the current trajectory, if left unchecked, DOGE could do more damage to the U.S. military than 20 years of war in Afghanistan. However, if DOGE listens and leads, it is in DOGE’s power to achieve its goals. Will it?
Harlan Ullman, UPI’s Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, has advised a number of heads of government and the most senior political and military leaders on these and other issues. A Vietnam-era Swift boat skipper with over 150 combat patrols and operational missions, his next book, co-authored with The General Lord David Richards, former U.K. chief of Defense, is The Arc of Failure: Can Decisive Strategic Thinking Transform a Dangerous World.
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