The Boston Celtics are set to launch into a season-long seven-game homestead that is loaded with intriguing matchups, including book-end visits from the two conference leaders.
The next two weeks will feel like a playoff appetizer. It’s the Chili’s Triple Dipper of basketball, with a whole bunch of tasty tilts that will pit Boston against four of the NBA’s top seven teams.
March feels like a chance to make a statement before the invariable early-April downshift, when teams start to prioritize health and rest in advance of the postseason.
Here are five things we’ll have our eyes on while the Celtics get the most sleep in their own beds of the 2024-25 season:
1. Will the best continue to bring out the best in the Celtics?
Boston has the third-best record in the NBA against teams over .500 at 20-11. Only Cleveland (22-6) and Oklahoma City (21-10) have been better. Distill it down to the teams with the top 10 point differentials in the league, and Boston has the third best winning percentage (.625, 10-6 overall), trailing only the Cavaliers (.722, 13-5) and Rockets (.636, 14-8).
Lack of focus contributed to Boston’s roller-coaster ways through December and January, but about the only thing that has tripped this team up lately is the schedule. Boston ripped off 10 wins in 11 games before getting stuck in the mud Wednesday night on the second night of a back-to-back against a red-hot Detroit team.
The only back-to-back in this home stretch features two of the weaker opponents (Portland and Philadelphia), which could leave Boston fresh for the glitzier visits from elite opponents.
Outside the Detroit stumble, the Celtics have basically stiff-armed the rest of their playoff challengers behind them in the East standings, especially the Knicks. Friday night’s visit from the Cavaliers is a chance to take the season series, as Boston already snuffed out a long Cleveland winning streak near the start of the season.
The Cavaliers, riding an eight-game winning streak, sit 6.5 games ahead of Boston in the East standings and deserve a ton of respect for their consistency. That steadiness has all but eliminated any hope of Boston pushing for the top spot in the conference, even if the No. 2 seed looks pretty comfy with the way Boston’s potential path is unfolding.
Still, Friday night is the final chance for either side to make a statement, because these two teams won’t see each other again until a potential clash in the Eastern Conference finals in late May.
A visit from Denver, which was missing MVP candidate Nikola Jokic in the teams’ first meeting, looms this Sunday, and the new-look Lakers with Luka Doncic visit on February 8. The homestead concludes with the second and final meeting with the West-leading Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Celtics can atone for some of their head-slapping Garden stumbles during the 2024-25 season over the next two weeks.
2. Eyes on Boston’s starting five
Boston’s preferred starting five is one of only 14 five-man lineups in the NBA with at least 250 minutes played this season. But despite finding its footing a bit in January, that group has logged just 30 minutes over two games together since February 4 (the All-Star break obviously contributing to that small number).
Boston’s preferred five — featuring Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, and Kristaps Porzingis — is still at a net rating of minus-1.6 for the season. That ranks 11th among those 14 high-usage lineups.
Boston’s starting five was outscored by 15 points in 15 minutes and 17 seconds together during Boston’s win over the Cavaliers on February 4. That group had been outscored by 14 against Philadelphia before rallying out of a 26-point hole the game before.
The Celtics’ starters have made strides since a rough start together, but they still haven’t quite found their mojo from last season. If Brown is healthy again after getting dinged up in Toronto earlier this week, there is an opportunity here to see how much progress the starters have made.
Jaylen Brown shares his thoughts on what’s changed for the Celtics recently that’s seen the team win eight of nine after a tough stretch in December and January.
3. Home is where the heart is?
Among the top 10 teams in the NBA, the Celtics have the worst home record at 18-10. The Knicks are the only other team with double-digit losses at home this season at 21-10.
The Celtics simply have to be better at home. They can’t keep giving away games on the parquet. While it’s a luxury for this team to feel confident on the road based on its league-best 24-7 mark away from home, they saw how home losses complicated their path in 2023, culminating with a Game 7 loss to the Heat at TD Garden in the East Finals.
Two of the Celtics’ three postseason losses came at home last year, and it barely slowed them down. But particularly if they have to go on the road to start the East Finals, playing better at home becomes imperative.
4. Who’s in the rotation in the big games?
When the Knicks visited last Sunday, the Celtics leaned on a familiar nine-man rotation, with Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet the only bench players utilized. This feels like the way it’s going to be when the playoffs arrive.
Torrey Craig, added earlier this month, was a DNP on Wednesday night, even with the team shorthanded in Detroit. He’s played only 32 minutes in three appearances since joining the team.
Some of the remaining back-to-backs could open the door for more regular-season playing time, but it feels like an uphill climb for anyone on the roster to be more than a playoff curveball. That said, Joe Mazzulla found small pockets for guys like Xavier Tillman to play during last year’s playoff run, so the deeper bench players need to show they can impact winning in small bursts if called upon during this stretch.
5. Will rivals’ additions impact their matchups with Boston?
The Lakers added Luka. The Thunder got back Chet Holmgren. The Cavaliers traded for De’Andre Hunter. All three teams essentially got better since the last time the Celtics saw them. So, do any of those moves complicate Boston’s quest to repeat as champions?
Given the depth and talent out West, it’s probably not worth sweating any of that until June. Visits from the Nuggets, Lakers, and Thunder are just an up-close glimpse of what might be waiting at the finish line of the season.
The bigger question seems to be whether Hunter’s addition moves the needle at all. Not to get too presumptuous, but it sure feels like the Celtics and Cavaliers are a cut above the rest of the East and are on a collision course to represent the conference.
Hunter remains in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation, even if Pritchard’s chief competition feels like Malik Beasley of the surging Pistons. Hunter has left his mark on Cleveland’s recent winning streak, including scoring 19 points in a 40-point thumping of the Magic on Tuesday night. The Cavaliers are +46 during Hunter’s floor time in the six games since he joined them.
Can Hunter help the Cavaliers corral the Jays on defense?
Last season, Hunter guarded Tatum and Brown for a combined 33 minutes of matchup time while with the Hawks. The Jays generated 32 points in those minutes on 13 of 29 shooting, per NBA tracking.
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