Taylor Maggiacomo/The New York Times
Ever since the closing weeks of the presidential campaign, we’ve been keeping an eye on how voters are feeling about the direction of the United States, based on daily polling data from Civiqs. Anger, hope, excitement, fear — there were so many conflicting emotions swirling around the November election, which, when re-envisioned as aura photographs, gave us a colorful look at the nation’s psyche.
Now, with Round 2 of the Donald Trump presidency about to begin, how is the mood trending? Rosier? Darker? A whiter shade of pale?
Although feelings about the country diverge along partisan lines, when taken overall, the electorate’s mood looks relatively lighter than it was during the election season. With Trump’s victory, there was a swift and significant rise in the number of those feeling “excited” and “hopeful,” along with a healthy drop in the number of “angry” voters.
There are many reasons for this, but with the economy such a searing issue in 2024, a chunk of the electorate is presumably buoyed by Trump’s vow to “Make America wealthy again.” Stung by inflation and by the sense that the Biden administration was not taking their pain seriously, Americans are especially eager for Trump to tackle economic issues as he assumes office. Trump promised to swiftly slash costs, improve wages and usher in a new era of prosperity. Admittedly, his plan to accomplish this by relying heavily on measures like mass deportations and high tariffs seems … optimistic. And Trump himself has already walked back that whole price-cutting pledge. But why harsh the vibes so soon?
Trump may not make America great again, but he seems to have made it a bit less rage-y for now.
Digging into the data, we see some mood gaps emerge among different groups — though they are not as large as you might expect.
Men without college degrees, many of whom were super sour before the election, are feeling significantly cheerier. Hopefulness is up since Election Day and anger is down. And why not? Team Trump explicitly courted men more than any presidential campaign in recent memory: going on male-targeted podcasts, hanging out at UFC matches and generally telegraphing a bro-y vibe. Hulk Hogan ripping off his shirt at the Republican Party’s nominating convention this summer was so on brand. Whether we’re talking about the legions of young men feeling alienated by the so-called feminization of the culture or the blue-collar guys struggling to provide for their families, Trump’s message was, I get you.
By this measure, you’d think the mood among college-educated women would have tanked. But intriguingly, college-educated women have not reported much of a post-election vibe shift. Their “scared” numbers have risen a point or two, remaining in the low 20s, while their hopefulness has stayed at 20 percent or 21 percent. More striking, the number feeling “angry” has dropped six points. So maybe don’t look for a women’s march full of pink pussycat hats as large as last time around.
Breaking things down by race also offers some surprises — though not necessarily among white voters. With this demographic, long Trump’s fan base, hopefulness shot up around 10 points post-election, while anger was cut in half.
And while the post-election mood among African American and other Black voters didn’t brighten, neither did it completely crater. The biggest shift was a 10-point drop in hopefulness. But notably, that just returned it to slightly lower than it had been when Biden was the nominee. Reported fear and depression went up a few points each. But excitement rose from when Biden was in the race and is still a point above when Harris was.
Among Hispanic and Latino voters, the most notable change was a slight drop in anger post-election — perhaps surprising in light of Trump’s general fondness for bashing Central and South America. Going deeper, Hispanic men reported a mild boost in hopefulness and a tiny drop in fear, while Hispanic women went in the opposite direction, reporting slightly less hope and more fear.
Age wasn’t much of a predictor of vibe swings. When it comes to depression, the youngest voters, 18 to 34 years old, held pretty steady, while the 65-plus crowd saw a smidgen of a rise. Both groups reported a modest rise in hopefulness and a significant drop in anger post-election. Interestingly, the 65-plus crowd remained a little angrier than the youngest voters. Going forward, Trump will want to watch out for grumpy old men and women as much as for youth in revolt.
No matter how you slice the numbers, it’s clear the American people were itching for change. Good change. Scary change. Risky change. They wanted someone to acknowledge that the status quo was not working for them — that something’s got to give. Trump is nothing if not an agent of disruption. Of course, now comes the hard part: delivering on all those big promises.
#Opinion #Checking #Americas #Vibes #Trump #Takes #Stage
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